# UVALDE WGC 2024 Weather Briefing - TUE 08/27 - FINAL # Issued 0900 CDT Tue 08/27 # Walter Rogers and Dan Gudgel ## SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION A low center at 500mb is has stalled over the Hill Country just north of Uvalde this morning... the remnant of an easterly wave from the Gulf of Mexico. High relative humidity (RH) covers the task area producing multiple mostly low cloud layers. Ensemble high resolution model forecasts (see HREF Forecast graphic below) shows scattered showers and thunderstorms 70pct probability developing this afternoon. Cu and stratocumulus cloud bases starting 4500ft MSL rising to 5500 possibly 6000ft MSL. Cloud coverage 30-50 pct through the day. Precipitation by sunset could amount to between 0.10 to 0.25 inch (3-7 mm). Windy 500mb Winds 4pm CDT Tue 08/27 ##  ## 10,000ft Winds 700mb RH 4pm CDT Tue 08/27  ## 5000ft Winds 850mb and RH 4pm CDT Tue 08/27  ## TERMINAL START AREA DISCUSSION FOR KUVA Max temp 92F early in the day... upper 80s later in the afternoon. Considerable cloud cover 30-60pct rising slowly through the day with increasing chance of showers... and a few thunderstorms possible. Trigger 1200 CDT 29C 4500ft MSL limited by cloud base. Bases rising to 5500ft MSL generally across most of the area. Flyable day limited by start of showers and cloud cover. Thermal strength 3.5-4.5kts with sun reaching ground... 2 kts otherwise. Surface winds E 5-10kts... except G 15-20 vicinity showers. ## NAM3KM Forecast Sounding at 14z (9am CDT) Tue 08/27  ## SKYSIGHT POINT TIME SECTION - Tue 08/27 ## Cu Cloud Base 1500 CDT Based on 0749 CDT Tue 08/27  ## NAM3KM Model RH Clouds - Tue 08/27 Based on 06z nam3km run 08/27  ## HRRR Model RH Cloud Cover - Tue 08/27 Based on 09z hrrr run 08/27  ## TASK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION West to south to southwest from Uvalde... best thermal heights. Possible cu bases 6500ft MSL toward SW near Rio Grande. Hill Country to north... >80PCT cloud cover and numerous showers by afternoon. Lower bases 4500-5500ft MSL SE quadrant from Uvalde. ## HREF Forecast TS Probabilities valid 3pm CDT (20z) Tue  ## HRRR Model Radar Animation for TUE 08/27 Based on 10z hrrr run TUE 8/27 <figure class="video_container"> <iframe width="400" height="300" src="https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/gibbn272ge2zqa5q3hnql/hrrr_Radar_Tue_20240827.mp4?rlkey=mt4hebpxrauos73k3puh2vjzs&raw=1" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true"> </iframe> </figure> ## HRRR Model PBL Height Meter AGL Animation TUE 08/27 Based on 10z hrrr run TUE 08/27 <figure class="video_container"> <iframe width="400" height="300" src="https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/qlw25jqqdsr12t0uxb4vx/hrrr_PBL_Height_Tue_20240827.mp4?rlkey=ktfz6ihunce22ke46zbps4qjh&raw=1" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true"> </iframe> </figure> ## HRRR Model Low Cloud Layer Animation TUE 08/27 Based on 10z hrrr run TUE 08/27 <figure class="video_container"> <iframe width="400" height="300" src="https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/69ebysr8apum1lmfbvrck/hrrr_LowCloudCover_Tue_20240827.mp4?rlkey=3iofh1s3tx5l425gzwilsqaqe&raw=1" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true"> </iframe> </figure>