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# UVALDE WGC 2024 Weather Briefing - WED 08/28 - FINAL # Issued 0930 CDT Wed 08/28 # Walter Rogers and Dan Gudgel ## SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION The upper air circulation (500mb) is a bit confused this morning, but reflects a moist airmass and several centers of weak circulation. The remnants of the low that moved NW is now on a N-S trough axis over West Texas. A second weak low center is over the NW Gulf of Mexico. At 850mb a widespread moist SE flow sweeps in across two thirds of Texas. For the task area, the airmass is even more moist at lower levels than Tuesday with lots of low clouds, coverage 50-90 pct... slowly burning off during the afternoon to <50pct coverage. It will be an equally weak and difficult soaring day to Tuesday... but with less convective thunderstorm activity and more low cloud coverage. Windy 500mb Winds 4pm CDT Wed 08/28 ## ![image alt](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/i4nxmlv3s9dhrzi3f1aim/Windy_500mb_RH_Winds_4pmCDT_Wed_20240828.jpg?rlkey=hei7oxb6gsob4cekcpdbpusds&raw=1) ## 5000ft Winds 850mb and RH 4pm CDT Wed 08/28 ![image alt](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/cwrazthnnr6s17skp0lol/Windy_850mb_RH_Winds_4pmCDT_Wed_20240828.jpg?rlkey=nf6i2nh4vd4h3jaegdl1d9b5m&raw=1) ## TERMINAL START AREA DISCUSSION FOR KUVA Trigger temp 84F (29C) to 4000ft MSL by 12-1230pm ... probably BKN or more coverage and bases 2500-3000ft AGL. Max temp 93F (34C) with bases 5500-6000ft MSL by late afternoon... coverage <50 pct. Day ends around 5-530pm. Thermal strengths 3.5-4.5kts. Surace winds E 5-10kts. ## NAM3KM Forecast Sounding at 12z (7am CDT) Wed 08/28 ## Compare to local Balloon Windsonde ![](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/z70cmr5bl2cm2evgfsxac/Windsonde_KUVA_20240828_Wed_12z_0645CDT_WaltsCopy.jpg?rlkey=k2rqvciqgqc4952phec55yplf&raw=1) ## SKYSIGHT POINT TIME SECTION - Wed 08/28 ## Cu Cloud Base 1500 CDT Based on 0637 CDT Wed 08/28 ![image alt](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/tq67577l4tawrsza8e0k0/Skysight_PointForecast_KUVA_CuCloudBase_4pmCDT_20240828_0637Update.jpg?rlkey=jhhxycw0fl5v0yihjvnszerqq&raw=1) ## NAM3KM Model RH Clouds - Wed 08/28 Based on 06z nam3km run 08/28 ![](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/hy3b726b9acs5go5gh8x3/nam3km_TimeSeries_RH_CloudCover_KUVA_Wed_20280828_06zRun.jpg?rlkey=oszboa4096wodb5lmz3xx8nzi&raw=1) ## TASK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION Best lift (weak) over Uvalde, areas NW to W to S. Models showing possible thunderstorms showers eveloping just W of San Antonio along a N-S line later afternoon. Not much variation of thermal heights cloud bases entire task area. ## HREF Forecast TS Probabilities valid 3pm CDT (20z) Wed ![](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/g89kvc01114qqei4omsmt/HREF_20z_Wed_20240828_from_Tue_20240828_model_00z_Run.jpg?rlkey=rg18wnkgx9z5m021rzto48f63&raw=1) ## HREF Forecast TS Probabilities valid 6pm CDT (23z) Wed ![](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/cdxfhbcnvgu0hniaxmehk/HREF_23z_Wed_20240828_from_Tue_20240828_model_00z_Run.jpg?rlkey=spgs0ko9faok2vvbfxhch2ulu&raw=1) ## HRRR Model Radar Animation for TUE 08/27 Based on 10z hrrr run TUE 8/27 <figure class="video_container"> <iframe width="400" height="300" src="https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/00j54uqgkbjdt4ilh43ln/hrrr_Radar_Wed_20240828_10z.mp4?rlkey=9mcu8mmyszma4b8fkes8gecb2&raw=1" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true"> </iframe> </figure> ## HRRR Model PBL Height Meter AGL Animation WED 08/28 Based on 10z hrrr run WED 08/28 <figure class="video_container"> <iframe width="400" height="300" src="https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/fleod543x7nujobonlbmc/hrrr_PBL_Height_Wed_20240828_10z.mp4?rlkey=4o9ffcmlsa03mp7ivdyf7vytk&raw=1" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true"> </iframe> </figure> ## HRRR Model Low Cloud Layer Animation WED 08/28 Based on 10z hrrr run WED 08/28 <figure class="video_container"> <iframe width="400" height="300" src="https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/v03g60o6sqxj18z7fzx8u/hrrr_LowCloudCover_Wed_20240828_10z.mp4?rlkey=tlbwrtihdq45s7x9bbtpypyom&raw=1" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true"> </iframe> </figure>